Tuesday, October 9, 2007
Sept Fed Minutes
The Sept Fed minutes are out and the stand out message to the markets are that the doors are ajar for further cuts going forward. The unanimous decision by all voting members indicate to me they see real trouble on the horizon and are acting preemptively. The 50 bp cut we saw last month took me by surprise given the past clues into the Fed's thinking. We were told time and again they would be vigilant on inflation, would not bail out those who made poor investment choices, and any decisons would be data dependent. Despite what we heard what we saw is what IS, that is what is important. What is is a level in which the Greenspan put has been replaced by the Bernake put. I suspect that the 180 degree turn on inflation outlook is that a soft economy (2007 and 2008 growth has been revised down) will act in a manner to cool inflation (soft economy will lead to decreased demand). I know in my own experience that I do tend to eat less, drive less, use less health services, and generally don't feel the need to educate my self any more. Oh, wait the Fed doesn't look at these things when looking at inflation, so they must not count. It does look at ORE (Owner's Rent Equivalents) maybe the answer lies there somewhere. As housing prices decrease, rents should increase, leading to inflation. No that doesn't work either. Maybe lowering interest rates to beat down our currency. No that works just like printing money which is inflationary. Maybe lowering rates to make sure the economy remains propped up through the 2008 presidential election. That smells closer but the Fed is independent right, it is right?
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