Monday, November 19, 2007

How well will comerical real estate hold up?

The commercial real estate market is one sector of the economy no one has really been commenting on. By and large this sector has remained steady and has not felt the same effect the residential sector has felt. How long can this continue? Can commercial real estate remain resilient in light of a deteriorating consumer and economy? I venture to say no. I am a believer that the consumer leads the economy since they represent about 2/3 of our GDP. When the consumer slows so does everything behind it.

Nouriel Roubini, RGE monitor, comments in the article:

The Next Shoe to Drop in the Credit Meltdown: Commercial Real Estate and Its Massive Forthcoming Losses

While everyone’s attention is concentrated on subprime and other residential mortgages, as first reported by this blogger this past July the next shoe to drop - in the mortgage and credit crunch saga - will be commercial real estate (CRE); indeed investors’ worries and panic are now shifting towards CRE and its related securitized products (CMBS and CMBX).

Many of the same excesses that were observed in subprime – poor underwriting standards, loose and excessive lending to marginal projects – are also observed in CRE. For example, as reported by Fitch, since 2005 there has been a very sharp increase in interest rate only mortgages and mortgages with high loan to value ratios. Loans increased to 118 per cent of the value of commercial properties in the last quarter, as reported by Moody’s, suggesting widespread use of reckless negative ammortization mortgages. And while real investment in commercial real estate has been strong in recent months (growing at a SAAR rate above 10% while residential was collapsing at a negative 20% rate) there is now evidence that commercial real estate is also at a tipping point. Actually the bubble in CRE construction – like the bubble in residential construction – will soon turn into a painful bust.

The reasons for this coming bust are clear. Commercial real estate – or more generally non-residential investment in structures - includes two main elements: office buildings, shopping centers/malls; and construction of structures for the manufacturing sectors (i.e. new factories). Both components are now under stress. The reason why we will observe a sharp slowdown in construction of new offices and shopping centers is that, with a lag, commercial real estate follows residential real estate.

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The Making of a Financial Portfolio Manager

Welcome to my blog. For this first posting I will give you a little of my background via some quick life highlights. I was raised in Midland, TX (yep, 180 degrees away from Boulder, CO). I grabbed my High School Diploma on the way out the door to Colorado, where my real adventure begins.

By the time I had moved to Colorado I had already climbed Mt. Whitney in California, and Mt. Rainier and Mt. Baker in Washington, learned to ice climb (on the local Midland, Tx., trees), and dove off the coast of Kauai.

Once in Colorado I spent my first few years really climbing both rock, ice, and some big peaks. Oh, and I spent some time on the University of Colorado campus with the aspirations of becoming a doctor. My advisor took some issue with that notion as I was not "Med School material". Turns out he was correct, but for different reasons. I did manage to finish up my undergraduate work at the University of Colorado with duel degrees in Biochemistry and Molecular Biology. Turns out that I really didn't have a passion for the sciences but the undergraduate work did wonders to develop my analytical side which plays a major role in my current work.

By my senior year I had worked my way onto the University of Colorado Triathlon Team (to meet girls of course). Well, I didn't meet any girls but did mange to find a skill set that I maintain to this day. I fell in love (for lack of better words) with the sport and immediately took it to the highest level. I began training for the iron distance triathlons (I am too slow for the short stuff). By November of 2000 I completed my first full length iron distance triathlon, The Great Floridian.

By the end of November, that same year, I found my self in the Vail Hospital with two broken ankles. I took a pretty substantial fall ice climbing. I was picked to lead the very sketchy climb because I was the only one with insurance at the time. After being CAT scanned from head to toe (with special interest in my heart; they wanted to make sure it was still attached to my aorta), and having my ankles bolted back together, I was left to deal with the pain and realization that I might never properly walk again. This hurt much more than the mess below my tibiae. Months and months later I did finally take my first run of 100 ft. A year later I would go on to run my first marathon. I did return and returned with a vengeance. If anyone is interested I can make a few posts on that experience.

During the days of crawling on the floor with my busted bones I decided to head into the business world and work towards an MBA. As it turned out my MBA (student loans) helped to finance my professional amateur triathlon career. By 2004 I was qualified to compete in the Ironman Triathlon World Championships in Kona, Hawaii. Yep, the big one. Life is a compilation of each of our past experiences. Ironman training, while not providing me with direct career experience, helped me to develop dedication.

I completed this and began selling Microscopes, and other high end imaging equipment and accompanying software out of Salt Lake City. This lasted about a year and a half. My heart was with the stock market not the sciences. During this time I had also managed to obtain a Master's degree in Finance. My path was now set. I loved the stock market.

My focus was now on my career. I was still athletic but not what I was. Again, a topic for another post. The transition from peak performer to an "also ran" is more difficult than is advertised. I suspect this is why many professional athletes come out of retirement. I did manage to qualify for the Xterra off-road World Championships in Maui, HI but another injury derailed that experience. I would now be starting over at the very bottom of the heaps of people trying to jockey a successful career. I would draw on my years as an athlete to carry me.

Deciding to pursue a financial oriented career, I landed a position back in Boulder, CO, with a stock advisory firm (Winning on Wall Street) where I would take phone calls and tell our members what I thought of their stock ideas. I also was able to spend some time co-hosting the associated radio program.

With my new found knowledge of stock analysis, risk management, economics, and my desire to be a professional portfolio manager I started Keystone Capital Management. This is where we will start this blog. I want to share the trials of being forged by fire into a professional polished money manger. This has been the most difficult venture I have ever undertaken. The street level learning and psychology of dealing with other people's trust and future is more than I ever could have imagined. It has been a fascinating journey that I hope you will enjoy and participate in.

The Keystone

Monday, November 19, 2007

How well will comerical real estate hold up?

The Next Shoe to Drop in the Credit Meltdown: Commercial Real Estate and Its Massive Forthcoming Losses

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